Maize Production Forecast using ARIMA Modeling

Abstract

Maize has become increasingly important in India’s foodgrain production, particularly for it’s use in ethanol production. Maize is more suitable for ethanol production than rice and sugarcane because of lower food security concerns and less water required for irrigation. This study employs autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling to forecast maize production for the next five years using maize production data from 1966–67 to 2025–26. Model diagnostics identified ARIMA(2,2,2) as the best fit. The study projects maize production to increase from 550.93 lakh tonnes in 2025–26 to approximately 774 lakh tonnes by 2030, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 7%. Investment in drying and storage infrastructure is essential to reduce post harvest losses and ensure quality with maize production expected to rise steadily.